Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity

Ulzega, Simone; Albert, Carlo; Beer, Jürg

Publication type:	Conference other
Type of review:	Editorial review
Title:	Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity
Authors:	Ulzega, Simone Albert, Carlo Beer, Jürg
et. al:	No
Conference details:	5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023
Issue Date:	16-May-2023
Language:	English
Subjects:	Solar physics; Bayesian inference
Subject (DDC):	510: Mathematics
Abstract:	A lot of effort has gone into the development of sound physics-based stochastic solar dynamo models capable of explaining a wide variety of characteristic phenomena such as for instance periodic cycles and occurrences of Grand Minima. Building on the work of Wilmot-Smith et al. (2006), we propose a second-order stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE) model for the solar dynamo. Stochastic models can be very useful tools for making reliable probabilistic predictions. However, model parameters need to be first calibrated to measured data in a consistent framework such as the Bayesian one. Bayesian inference methods bear the great advantage over traditional optimization techniques of providing an uncertainty estimation for the calibrated parameters in the form of a probability distribution. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter calibration with stochastic models is a computationally very challenging task, requiring sophisticated algorithms and appropriate hardware. Moreover, a reliable parameter calibration for solar dynamo models has been hindered so far by the lack of data over a time span comparable to solar dynamics time scales, as the only available direct observations of long-term solar magnetic activity are sunspot number records, covering only about 300 years. However, time-series of cosmogenic radionuclides (Brehm et al. 2021, Usoskin et al. 2021) are proxies for solar magnetic activity on a millennial time scale, which can potentially shed light on several open questions, e.g., occurrences of Grand Minima and long-period cycles, and boost our understanding and predictive capabilities of the solar dynamo. We present here our first attempts to apply advanced Bayesian inference methods to the calibration of a SDDE solar dynamo model, and discuss preliminary results, hardships, and perspectives (and dreams).
Further description:	Conference talk
URI:	http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/28063
Fulltext version:	Published version
License (according to publishing contract):	Licence according to publishing contract
Departement:	Life Sciences and Facility Management
Organisational Unit:	Institute of Computational Life Sciences (ICLS)
Published as part of the ZHAW project:	Feature Learning for Bayesian Inference
Appears in collections:	Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management

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Ulzega, S., Albert, C., & Beer, J. (2023, May 16). Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity. 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023. http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf

Ulzega, S., Albert, C. and Beer, J. (2023) ‘Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity’, in 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023. Available at: http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf.

S. Ulzega, C. Albert, and J. Beer, “Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity,” in 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023, May 2023. [Online]. Available: http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf

ULZEGA, Simone, Carlo ALBERT und Jürg BEER, 2023. Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity. In: 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023 [online]. Conference presentation. 16 Mai 2023. Verfügbar unter: http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf

Ulzega, Simone, Carlo Albert, and Jürg Beer. 2023. “Shedding Light on the Sun through the Calibration of Solar Dynamo Models on Millennial Records of Solar Activity.” Conference presentation. In 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023. http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf.

Ulzega, Simone, et al. “Shedding Light on the Sun through the Calibration of Solar Dynamo Models on Millennial Records of Solar Activity.” 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023, 2023, http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf.