1. ZHAW digitalcollection
  2. Life Sciences und Facility Management
  3. Publikationen
  4. Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management
Full metadata record
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorUlzega, Simone-
dc.contributor.authorAlbert, Carlo-
dc.contributor.authorBeer, Jürg-
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-15T14:34:39Z-
dc.date.available2023-06-15T14:34:39Z-
dc.date.issued2023-05-16-
dc.identifier.urihttp://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdfde_CH
dc.identifier.urihttps://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/28063-
dc.descriptionConference talkde_CH
dc.description.abstractA lot of effort has gone into the development of sound physics-based stochastic solar dynamo models capable of explaining a wide variety of characteristic phenomena such as for instance periodic cycles and occurrences of Grand Minima. Building on the work of Wilmot-Smith et al. (2006), we propose a second-order stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE) model for the solar dynamo. Stochastic models can be very useful tools for making reliable probabilistic predictions. However, model parameters need to be first calibrated to measured data in a consistent framework such as the Bayesian one. Bayesian inference methods bear the great advantage over traditional optimization techniques of providing an uncertainty estimation for the calibrated parameters in the form of a probability distribution. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter calibration with stochastic models is a computationally very challenging task, requiring sophisticated algorithms and appropriate hardware. Moreover, a reliable parameter calibration for solar dynamo models has been hindered so far by the lack of data over a time span comparable to solar dynamics time scales, as the only available direct observations of long-term solar magnetic activity are sunspot number records, covering only about 300 years. However, time-series of cosmogenic radionuclides (Brehm et al. 2021, Usoskin et al. 2021) are proxies for solar magnetic activity on a millennial time scale, which can potentially shed light on several open questions, e.g., occurrences of Grand Minima and long-period cycles, and boost our understanding and predictive capabilities of the solar dynamo. We present here our first attempts to apply advanced Bayesian inference methods to the calibration of a SDDE solar dynamo model, and discuss preliminary results, hardships, and perspectives (and dreams).de_CH
dc.language.isoende_CH
dc.rightsLicence according to publishing contractde_CH
dc.subjectSolar physicsde_CH
dc.subjectBayesian inferencede_CH
dc.subject.ddc510: Mathematikde_CH
dc.titleShedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activityde_CH
dc.typeKonferenz: Sonstigesde_CH
dcterms.typeTextde_CH
zhaw.departementLife Sciences und Facility Managementde_CH
zhaw.organisationalunitInstitut für Computational Life Sciences (ICLS)de_CH
zhaw.conference.details5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023de_CH
zhaw.funding.euNode_CH
zhaw.originated.zhawYesde_CH
zhaw.publication.statuspublishedVersionde_CH
zhaw.publication.reviewEditorial reviewde_CH
zhaw.funding.snf208249de_CH
zhaw.webfeedBiomedical Simulationde_CH
zhaw.webfeedHigh Performance Computing (HPC)de_CH
zhaw.funding.zhawFeature Learning for Bayesian Inferencede_CH
zhaw.author.additionalNode_CH
zhaw.display.portraitYesde_CH
Appears in collections:Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Show simple item record
Ulzega, S., Albert, C., & Beer, J. (2023, May 16). Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity. 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023. http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf
Ulzega, S., Albert, C. and Beer, J. (2023) ‘Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity’, in 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023. Available at: http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf.
S. Ulzega, C. Albert, and J. Beer, “Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity,” in 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023, May 2023. [Online]. Available: http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf
ULZEGA, Simone, Carlo ALBERT und Jürg BEER, 2023. Shedding light on the sun through the calibration of solar dynamo models on millennial records of solar activity. In: 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023 [online]. Conference presentation. 16 Mai 2023. Verfügbar unter: http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf
Ulzega, Simone, Carlo Albert, and Jürg Beer. 2023. “Shedding Light on the Sun through the Calibration of Solar Dynamo Models on Millennial Records of Solar Activity.” Conference presentation. In 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023. http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf.
Ulzega, Simone, et al. “Shedding Light on the Sun through the Calibration of Solar Dynamo Models on Millennial Records of Solar Activity.” 5th Swiss SCOSTEP Workshop, Windisch, Switzerland, 15-16 May 2023, 2023, http://scostep2023.cs.technik.fhnw.ch/pres/ulzega_scostep_2023.pdf.


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.