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Title: Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone
Authors : Anet, Julien G.
Rozanov, E. V.
Muthers, S.
Peter, T.
Brönnimann, S.
Arfeuille, F.
Beer, J.
Shapiro, A. I.
Raible, C. C.
Steinhilber, F.
Schmutz, W. K.
Published in : Geophysical Research Letters
Volume(Issue) : 40
Issue : 16
Pages : 4420
Pages to: 4425
Publisher / Ed. Institution : Wiley
Issue Date: 2013
License (according to publishing contract) : Licence according to publishing contract
Type of review: Peer review (Publication)
Language : English
Subject (DDC) : 500: Natural sciences and mathematics
Abstract: We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere‐ocean chemistry‐climate model AOCCM SOCOL3‐MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.
Further description : ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved
Departement: School of Engineering
Organisational Unit: Centre for Aviation (ZAV)
Publication type: Article in scientific Journal
DOI : 10.1002/grl.50806
ISSN: 0094-8276
Appears in Collections:Publikationen School of Engineering

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