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Title: Change of plant phenophases explained by survival modeling
Authors : Templ, Barbara
Fleck, Stefan
Templ, Matthias
Published in : International Journal of Biometeorology
Volume(Issue) : 61
Issue : 5
Pages : 881
Pages to: 889
Publisher / Ed. Institution : Springer
Issue Date: 2016
License (according to publishing contract) : Licence according to publishing contract
Type of review: Peer review (Publication)
Language : English
Subjects : Biogeographical regions of Europe; Cox model with time dependent covariates; Taraxacum officinale; Timing of flowering; Europe; Flower; Kaplan-Meier Estimate; Rain; Taraxacum; Temperature; Proportional Hazards Model; Season
Subject (DDC) : 580: Plants (Botany)
Abstract: It is known from many studies that plant species show a delay in the timing of flowering events with an increase in latitude and altitude, and an advance with an increase in temperature. Furthermore, in many locations and for many species, flowering dates have advanced over the long-term. New insights using survival modeling are given based on data collected (1970-2010) along a 3000-km long transect from northern to eastern central Europe. We could clearly observe that in the case of dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) the risk of flowering time, in other words the probability that flowering occurs, is higher for an earlier day of year in later decades. Our approach assume that temperature has greater influence than precipitation on the timing of flowering. Evaluation of the predictive power of tested models suggests that Cox models may be used in plant phenological research. The applied Cox model provides improved predictions of flowering dates compared to traditional regression methods and gives further insights into drivers of phenological events.
Further description : Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenzen (
Departement: School of Engineering
Organisational Unit: Institute of Data Analysis and Process Design (IDP)
Publication type: Article in scientific Journal
DOI : 10.1007/s00484-016-1267-z
ISSN: 0020-7128
Restricted until : 2022-01-01
Appears in Collections:Publikationen School of Engineering

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