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Publication type: Article in scientific journal
Type of review: Peer review (publication)
Title: Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models
Authors: Yates, Katherine L.
Bouchet, Phil J.
Caley, M Julian
Mengersen, Kerrie
Randin, Christophe F.
Parnell, Stephen
Fielding, Alan H.
Bamford, Andrew J.
Ban, Stephen
Barbosa, A Márcia
Dormann, Carsten F.
Elith, Jane
Embling, Clare B.
Ervin, Gary N.
Fisher, Rebecca
Gould, Susan
Graf, Roland Felix
Gregr, Edward J.
Halpin, Patrick N.
Heikkinen, Risto K.
Heinänen, Stefan
Jones, Alice R.
Krishnakumar, Periyadan K.
Lauria, Valentina
Lozano-Montes, Hector
Mannocci, Laura
Mellin, Camille
Mesgaran, Mohsen B.
Moreno-Amat, Elena
Mormede, Sophie
Novaczek, Emilie
Oppel, Steffen
Ortuño Crespo, Guillermo
Peterson, A. Townsend
Rapacciuolo, Giovanni
Roberts, Jason J.
Ross, Rebecca E.
Scales, Kylie L.
Schoeman, David
Snelgrove, Paul
Sundblad, Göran
Thuiller, Wilfried
Torres, Leigh G.
Verbruggen, Heroen
Wang, Lifei
Wenger, Seth
Whittingham, Mark J.
Zharikov, Yuri
Zurell, Damaris
Sequeira, Ana M. M.
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001
Published in: Trends in Ecology & Evolution
Volume(Issue): 33
Issue: 10
Page(s): 790
Pages to: 802
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher / Ed. Institution: Cell Press
ISSN: 1872-8383
Language: English
Subjects: Predictive modeling; Extrapolation; Generality; Habitat models; Model transfers; Species distribution models; Uncertainty
Subject (DDC): 577: Ecology
Abstract: Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.
Fulltext version: Published version
License (according to publishing contract): CC BY-NC-ND 4.0: Attribution - Non commercial - No derivatives 4.0 International
Departement: Life Sciences and Facility Management
Organisational Unit: Institute of Natural Resource Sciences (IUNR)
Appears in collections:Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management

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Yates, K. L., Bouchet, P. J., Caley, M. J., Mengersen, K., Randin, C. F., Parnell, S., Fielding, A. H., Bamford, A. J., Ban, S., Barbosa, A. M., Dormann, C. F., Elith, J., Embling, C. B., Ervin, G. N., Fisher, R., Gould, S., Graf, R. F., Gregr, E. J., Halpin, P. N., et al. (2018). Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 33(10), 790–802.
Yates, K.L. et al. (2018) ‘Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models’, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 33(10), pp. 790–802. Available at:
K. L. Yates et al., “Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models,” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 33, no. 10, pp. 790–802, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001.
YATES, Katherine L., Phil J. BOUCHET, M Julian CALEY, Kerrie MENGERSEN, Christophe F. RANDIN, Stephen PARNELL, Alan H. FIELDING, Andrew J. BAMFORD, Stephen BAN, A Márcia BARBOSA, Carsten F. DORMANN, Jane ELITH, Clare B. EMBLING, Gary N. ERVIN, Rebecca FISHER, Susan GOULD, Roland Felix GRAF, Edward J. GREGR, Patrick N. HALPIN, Risto K. HEIKKINEN, Stefan HEINÄNEN, Alice R. JONES, Periyadan K. KRISHNAKUMAR, Valentina LAURIA, Hector LOZANO-MONTES, Laura MANNOCCI, Camille MELLIN, Mohsen B. MESGARAN, Elena MORENO-AMAT, Sophie MORMEDE, Emilie NOVACZEK, Steffen OPPEL, Guillermo ORTUÑO CRESPO, A. Townsend PETERSON, Giovanni RAPACCIUOLO, Jason J. ROBERTS, Rebecca E. ROSS, Kylie L. SCALES, David SCHOEMAN, Paul SNELGROVE, Göran SUNDBLAD, Wilfried THUILLER, Leigh G. TORRES, Heroen VERBRUGGEN, Lifei WANG, Seth WENGER, Mark J. WHITTINGHAM, Yuri ZHARIKOV, Damaris ZURELL und Ana M. M. SEQUEIRA, 2018. Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2018. Bd. 33, Nr. 10, S. 790–802. DOI 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001
Yates, Katherine L., Phil J. Bouchet, M Julian Caley, Kerrie Mengersen, Christophe F. Randin, Stephen Parnell, Alan H. Fielding, et al. 2018. “Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 33 (10): 790–802.
Yates, Katherine L., et al. “Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 33, no. 10, 2018, pp. 790–802,

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