Title: Anticipating transitions beyond the current mobility regimes : how acceptability matters
Authors : Epprecht, Nils
Von Wirth, Timo
Stünzi, Christian
Blumer, Yann
et. al : No
Published in : Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies
Volume(Issue) : 60
Pages : 30
Pages to: 40
Publisher / Ed. Institution : Elsevier
Issue Date: 1-Aug-2014
License (according to publishing contract) : Licence according to publishing contract
Type of review: Peer review (publication)
Language : English
Subjects : Mobility regime; Radical system innovation; Scenario assessment; Socio-techical transition; Urban transportation; User acceptability
Subject (DDC) : 380: Communications and transportation
Abstract: Today's car-based transportation systems require a transition toward sustainability. This is particularly the case in suburban areas, where the costs for introducing a new transportation system are high due to the low population density. At the same time the negative externalities of the current mobility regime – such as health costs and congestions – are increasing rapidly. Based on expert interviews with car manufacturers, transportation authorities, environmental groups, and scientists we identify two visionary characteristics of future, more sustainable transportation systems: automated driving and sharing. Using these two characteristics, we apply the scenario-axes technique to develop four mobility scenarios for a suburban context that range from business-as-usual to a radical and more sustainable one. In an evaluation with ten criteria that measure a scenario's performance from a user perspective, the radical scenario performs worst since it does not meet current individualistic user requirements. Our findings suggest that lock-ins of users’ expectations act as barriers for the diffusion of novel transportation systems. These barriers cannot be overcome by technological innovations and regulation alone. Hence, we call for innovative arenas, wherein technology and user acceptability could co-evolve.
Departement: School of Management and Law
Organisational Unit: Center for Enterprise Development (ZUE)
Publication type: Article in scientific journal
DOI : 10.1016/j.futures.2014.04.001
ISSN: 0016-3287
1873-6378
URI: https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/17642
Appears in Collections:Publikationen School of Management and Law

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