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Publikationstyp: Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschrift
Art der Begutachtung: Peer review (Publikation)
Titel: Data-driven mid-air collision risk modelling using extreme-value theory
Autor/-in: Figuet, Benoit
Monstein, Raphael
Waltert, Manuel
Morio, Jérôme
et. al: No
DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2023.108646
10.21256/zhaw-28835
Erschienen in: Aerospace Science and Technology
Band(Heft): 142, Part A
Heft: 108646
Erscheinungsdatum: 25-Sep-2023
Verlag / Hrsg. Institution: Elsevier
ISSN: 1270-9638
1626-3219
Sprache: Englisch
Schlagwörter: Aviation safety; Collision risk modelling; Extreme-value theory; Peaks over threshold; Monte Carlo simulation
Fachgebiet (DDC): 380: Verkehr
510: Mathematik
Zusammenfassung: Mid-air collision risk estimation is crucial for maintaining aviation safety and improving the efficiency of air traffic procedures. This paper introduces a novel, data-driven methodology for estimating the probability of mid-air collisions between aircraft by combining Monte Carlo simulation and the Peaks Over Threshold approach from Extreme Value Theory. This innovative approach has substantial advantages over traditional methods. Firstly, it reduces the number of assumptions about the traffic flow compared to traditional analytical methods. In fact, data-driven techniques require fewer assumptions, as they inherently capture the structures of the traffic flow within the underlying data. Secondly, it converges faster than methods based on crude Monte Carlo simulation. Notably, by employing Extreme Value Theory, this approach enables efficient evaluation of low-probabilities, which are commonly found in collision risk modelling. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through estimating the probability of a mid-air collision in a real-world practical example. The case study investigates the risk of collisions between departures and go-arounds in the terminal airspace at Zurich Airport, highlighting the potential for improved safety and efficiency in air traffic management.
URI: https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/28835
Volltext Version: Publizierte Version
Lizenz (gemäss Verlagsvertrag): CC BY 4.0: Namensnennung 4.0 International
Departement: School of Engineering
Organisationseinheit: Zentrum für Aviatik (ZAV)
Enthalten in den Sammlungen:Publikationen School of Engineering

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Figuet, B., Monstein, R., Waltert, M., & Morio, J. (2023). Data-driven mid-air collision risk modelling using extreme-value theory. Aerospace Science and Technology, 142, Part A(108646). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ast.2023.108646
Figuet, B. et al. (2023) ‘Data-driven mid-air collision risk modelling using extreme-value theory’, Aerospace Science and Technology, 142, Part A(108646). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ast.2023.108646.
B. Figuet, R. Monstein, M. Waltert, and J. Morio, “Data-driven mid-air collision risk modelling using extreme-value theory,” Aerospace Science and Technology, vol. 142, Part A, no. 108646, Sep. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.ast.2023.108646.
FIGUET, Benoit, Raphael MONSTEIN, Manuel WALTERT und Jérôme MORIO, 2023. Data-driven mid-air collision risk modelling using extreme-value theory. Aerospace Science and Technology. 25 September 2023. Bd. 142, Part A, Nr. 108646. DOI 10.1016/j.ast.2023.108646
Figuet, Benoit, Raphael Monstein, Manuel Waltert, and Jérôme Morio. 2023. “Data-Driven Mid-Air Collision Risk Modelling Using Extreme-Value Theory.” Aerospace Science and Technology 142, Part A (108646). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ast.2023.108646.
Figuet, Benoit, et al. “Data-Driven Mid-Air Collision Risk Modelling Using Extreme-Value Theory.” Aerospace Science and Technology, vol. 142, Part A, no. 108646, Sept. 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ast.2023.108646.


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