| Publikationstyp: | Working Paper – Gutachten – Studie |
| Titel: | Stress test scenario : eurozone meltdown |
| Autor/-in: | Kelly, Scott Chaplin, Andrew Coburn, Andrew Copic, Jennifer Evan, Tamara Neduv, Eugene Ralph, Daniel Ruffle, Simon Schwendner, Peter Skelton, Andrew Yeo, Jaclyn Zhiyi |
| Umfang: | 32 |
| Erscheinungsdatum: | 2015 |
| Verlag / Hrsg. Institution: | Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies |
| Verlag / Hrsg. Institution: | Cambridge |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Fachgebiet (DDC): | 332: Finanzwirtschaft |
| Zusammenfassung: | Sovereign default is a failure or refusal by a country & government to make a repayment of national debts. Consequences include devaluation of the principal, as well as loss of yield from the bond. This report explores the impact of unexpected devaluation of fixed income assets resulting from a cascade of sovereign debt devaluations caused by the sequential exit of countries from a currency union. Such devaluations can have a similar financial effect as defaults which, if occurring in what are conventionally regarded as high quality, low risk investments, from one of our four Financial Catastrophe scenarios. Scenarios more generally can be used to cover the spectrum of extreme shocks, such as those proposed in the Cambridge Taxonomy of Threats, which encompasses five classes of business risk. A suite of scenarios is a basis for a global enterprise to stress test itself and improve its resilience. In this scenario political pressures force a bloc of European countries into a cascade of exits from the currency union. The speed and rapid incidence of multiple countries exiting is the most significant dimension of the scenario. The exit from the Euro spreads by contagion of similar political and economic issues across a number of countries and affects other economies that are typically thought of as being core countries of the Eurozone. These problematic political drivers might still endanger the currency union, although the pure financial market risks now seem to be under control as a powerful rescue architecture has been set up since 2011. |
| URI: | https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/8382 https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-eurozone-meltdown-financial-catastrophe.pdf |
| Lizenz (gemäss Verlagsvertrag): | Lizenz gemäss Verlagsvertrag |
| Departement: | School of Management and Law |
| Organisationseinheit: | Institut für Wealth & Asset Management (IWA) |
| Publiziert im Rahmen des ZHAW-Projekts: | European government bond dynamics and stability policies: taming contagion risks |
| Enthalten in den Sammlungen: | Publikationen School of Management and Law |
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Kelly, S., Chaplin, A., Coburn, A., Copic, J., Evan, T., Neduv, E., Ralph, D., Ruffle, S., Schwendner, P., Skelton, A., & Yeo, J. Z. (2015). Stress test scenario : eurozone meltdown. Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-eurozone-meltdown-financial-catastrophe.pdf
Kelly, S. et al. (2015) Stress test scenario : eurozone meltdown. Cambridge: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Available at: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-eurozone-meltdown-financial-catastrophe.pdf.
S. Kelly et al., “Stress test scenario : eurozone meltdown,” Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge, 2015. [Online]. Available: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-eurozone-meltdown-financial-catastrophe.pdf
KELLY, Scott, Andrew CHAPLIN, Andrew COBURN, Jennifer COPIC, Tamara EVAN, Eugene NEDUV, Daniel RALPH, Simon RUFFLE, Peter SCHWENDNER, Andrew SKELTON und Jaclyn Zhiyi YEO, 2015. Stress test scenario : eurozone meltdown [online]. Cambridge: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Verfügbar unter: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-eurozone-meltdown-financial-catastrophe.pdf
Kelly, Scott, Andrew Chaplin, Andrew Coburn, Jennifer Copic, Tamara Evan, Eugene Neduv, Daniel Ralph, et al. 2015. “Stress Test Scenario : Eurozone Meltdown.” Cambridge: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-eurozone-meltdown-financial-catastrophe.pdf.
Kelly, Scott, et al. Stress Test Scenario : Eurozone Meltdown. Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, 2015, https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-eurozone-meltdown-financial-catastrophe.pdf.
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