Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-4268
Title: Modeling the consequences of regional heterogeneity in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake on transmission in Switzerland
Authors : Riesen, Maurane
Garcia, Victor
Low, Nicola
Althaus, Christian L.
Published in : Vaccine
Volume(Issue) : 35
Issue : 52
Pages : 7312
Pages to: 7321
Publisher / Ed. Institution : Elsevier
Issue Date: 17-Dec-2017
Language : Englisch / English
Subjects : Human papillomavirus; Mathematical model; Sexual behavior; Switzerland; Vaccination
Subject (DDC) : 500: Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / Natural sciences & mathematics
616: Innere Medizin, Krankheiten / Diseases
Abstract: Background Completed human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination by age 16 years among women in Switzerland ranges from 17 to 75% across 26 cantons. The consequences of regional heterogeneity in vaccination coverage on transmission and prevalence of HPV-16 are unclear. Methods We developed a deterministic, population-based model that describes HPV-16 transmission among young adults within and between the 26 cantons of Switzerland. We parameterized the model using sexual behavior data from Switzerland and data from the Swiss National Vaccination Coverage Survey. First, we investigated the general consequences of heterogeneity in vaccination uptake between two sub-populations. We then compared the predicted prevalence of HPV-16 resulting from heterogeneous HPV vaccination uptake in all of Switzerland with homogeneous vaccination at an uptake that is identical to the national average (52%). Results In our baseline scenario, HPV-16 prevalence in women is 3.34% when vaccination is introduced and begins to diverge across cantons, ranging from 0.19 to 1.20% after 15 years of vaccination. After the same time period, overall prevalence of HPV-16 in Switzerland is only marginally higher (0.63%) with heterogeneous vaccination uptake than with homogeneous uptake (0.59%). Assuming inter-cantonal sexual mixing, cantons with low vaccination uptake benefit from a reduction in prevalence at the expense of cantons with high vaccination uptake. Conclusions Regional variations in uptake diminish the overall effect of vaccination on HPV-16 prevalence in Switzerland, but the effect size is small. Cantonal efforts towards HPV-prevalence reduction by increasing vaccination uptake are impaired by cantons with low vaccination uptake. Although the expected impact on national prevalence would be relatively small, harmonization of cantonal vaccination programs would reduce inter-cantonal differences in HPV-16 prevalence.
Departement: Life Sciences und Facility Management
Organisational Unit: Institut für Angewandte Simulation (IAS)
Publication type: Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschrift / Article in scientific Journal
Type of review: Peer review (Publikation)
DOI : 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.10.103
10.21256/zhaw-4268
ISSN: 0264410X
1873-2518
PMID : 29126806
URI: https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/7783
License (according to publishing contract) : CC BY-NC-ND 4.0: Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell - Keine Bearbeitungen 4.0 International
Appears in Collections:Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management

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