Title: The future's back : first generic models of self-defeating road traffic forecasting
Authors : Ott, Thomas
Füchslin, Rudolf Marcel
Conference details: NDES 2017: "Novel technologies from knowing how networks work", Nonlinear Dynamics of Electronic Systems NDES, Zernez, Switzerland, 5–7 June 2017
Issue Date: 5-Jun-2017
License (according to publishing contract) : Licence according to publishing contract
Type of review: Not specified
Language : English
Subjects : Modeling; Traffic
Subject (DDC) : 303: Social processes
380: Communications and transportation
Abstract: Traffic forecasts are critical for effective road traffic management. Driven by growing needs and the availability of more and new data and technology, traffic forecasting methods have become a vivid research field in the last couple of years (e.g. [1,2]). However, almost no attention has been paid so far to the effect of forecasting information on the traffic situation. From the perspective of traffic management, the desired effect often corresponds to a self-defeating prophecy; in the case of a predicted congestion, the goal of forecasting-based traffic management is to prevent or mitigate the predicted situation. In practice, the dynamics of this nonlinear feedback effect is hardly comprehended in traffic management. In our contribution, we elucidate the issue using the example of the South-to-North transit route in Switzerland and we derive reduced generic models of self-defeating traffic forecasting. They may provide a first step toward improved decision-making for traffic management, taking into account the repercussions of traffic recommendation on the system under consideration.
Departement: School of Engineering
Organisational Unit: Institute of Applied Mathematics and Physics (IAMP)
Institute of Applied Simulation (IAS)
Publication type: Conference Other
URI: https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/2696
Appears in Collections:Publikationen School of Engineering

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