| Publication type: | Article in scientific journal |
| Type of review: | Peer review (publication) |
| Title: | On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables |
| Authors: | Taleb, Nassim Nicholas Bar-Yam, Yaneer Cirillo, Pasquale |
| et. al: | No |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008 |
| Published in: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Volume(Issue): | 38 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Page(s): | 413 |
| Pages to: | 422 |
| Issue Date: | 20-Jan-2022 |
| Publisher / Ed. Institution: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0169-2070 1872-8200 |
| Language: | English |
| Subjects: | COVID-19; Debate; Evidence-based science; Forecasting; Tail risk; Risk fallacy |
| Subject (DDC): | 510: Mathematics |
| Abstract: | We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based" empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management. We use the COVID-19 pandemic as the background for the discussion and as an example of a phenomenon characterized by a multiplicative nature, and what mitigating policies must result from the statistical properties and associated risks. In doing so, we also respond to the points raised by Ioannidis et al. (2020). |
| URI: | https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/25331 |
| Fulltext version: | Published version |
| License (according to publishing contract): | Licence according to publishing contract |
| Departement: | School of Management and Law |
| Organisational Unit: | Institute of Business Information Technology (IWI) |
| Appears in collections: | Publikationen School of Management and Law |
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Taleb, N. N., Bar-Yam, Y., & Cirillo, P. (2022). On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(2), 413–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008
Taleb, N.N., Bar-Yam, Y. and Cirillo, P. (2022) ‘On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables’, International Journal of Forecasting, 38(2), pp. 413–422. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008.
N. N. Taleb, Y. Bar-Yam, and P. Cirillo, “On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables,” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 413–422, Jan. 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008.
TALEB, Nassim Nicholas, Yaneer BAR-YAM und Pasquale CIRILLO, 2022. On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables. International Journal of Forecasting. 20 Januar 2022. Bd. 38, Nr. 2, S. 413–422. DOI 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Pasquale Cirillo. 2022. “On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables.” International Journal of Forecasting 38 (2): 413–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008.
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, et al. “On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables.” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38, no. 2, Jan. 2022, pp. 413–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008.
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