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dc.contributor.authorHengartner, Michael Pascal-
dc.contributor.authorHeekeren, Karsten-
dc.contributor.authorDvorsky, Diane N.-
dc.contributor.authorWalitza, Susanne-
dc.contributor.authorRössler, Wulf-
dc.contributor.authorTheodoridou, Anastasia-
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-25T15:59:44Z-
dc.date.available2018-01-25T15:59:44Z-
dc.date.issued2017-
dc.identifier.issn0924-9338de_CH
dc.identifier.issn1778-3585de_CH
dc.identifier.urihttps://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/2221-
dc.description.abstractBackground: The aim of this study was to critically examine the prognostic validity of various clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria alone and in combination with additional clinical characteristics. Methods: A total of 188 CHR positive persons from the region of Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 20.5 years; 60.2% male), meeting ultra high-risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms (BS) criteria, were followed over three years. The test battery included the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), verbal IQ and many other screening tools. Conversion to psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23). Results: Altogether n = 24 persons developed manifest psychosis within three years and according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the projected conversion rate was 17.5%. The predictive accuracy of UHR was statistically significant but poor (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65, P < .05), whereas BS did not predict psychosis beyond mere chance (AUC = 0.52, P = .730). Sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.47 for UHR, and 0.96 and 0.09 for BS. UHR plus BS achieved an AUC = 0.66, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.56. In comparison, baseline antipsychotic medication yielded a predictive accuracy of AUC = 0.62 (sensitivity = 0.42; specificity = 0.82). A multivariable prediction model comprising continuous measures of positive symptoms and verbal IQ achieved a substantially improved prognostic accuracy (AUC = 0.85; sensitivity = 0.86; specificity = 0.85; positive predictive value = 0.54; negative predictive value = 0.97). Conclusions: We showed that BS have no predictive accuracy beyond chance, while UHR criteria poorly predict conversion to psychosis. Combining BS with UHR criteria did not improve the predictive accuracy of UHR alone. In contrast, dimensional measures of both positive symptoms and verbal IQ showed excellent prognostic validity. A critical re-thinking of binary at-risk criteria is necessary in order to improve the prognosis of psychotic disorders.de_CH
dc.language.isoende_CH
dc.publisherElsevierde_CH
dc.relation.ispartofEuropean Psychiatryde_CH
dc.rightsLicence according to publishing contractde_CH
dc.subject.ddc616.89: Psychische Störungen, klinische Psychologie und Psychiatriede_CH
dc.titleChecking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model : evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosisde_CH
dc.typeBeitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschriftde_CH
dcterms.typeTextde_CH
zhaw.departementAngewandte Psychologiede_CH
zhaw.organisationalunitPsychologisches Institut (PI)de_CH
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.eurpsy.2017.05.026de_CH
zhaw.funding.euNode_CH
zhaw.originated.zhawYesde_CH
zhaw.pages.end35de_CH
zhaw.pages.start27de_CH
zhaw.publication.statuspublishedVersionde_CH
zhaw.volume45de_CH
zhaw.publication.reviewPeer review (Publikation)de_CH
zhaw.webfeedKlinische Psychologiede_CH
Appears in collections:Publikationen Angewandte Psychologie

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Hengartner, M. P., Heekeren, K., Dvorsky, D. N., Walitza, S., Rössler, W., & Theodoridou, A. (2017). Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model : evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis. European Psychiatry, 45, 27–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eurpsy.2017.05.026
Hengartner, M.P. et al. (2017) ‘Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model : evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis’, European Psychiatry, 45, pp. 27–35. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eurpsy.2017.05.026.
M. P. Hengartner, K. Heekeren, D. N. Dvorsky, S. Walitza, W. Rössler, and A. Theodoridou, “Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model : evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis,” European Psychiatry, vol. 45, pp. 27–35, 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.eurpsy.2017.05.026.
HENGARTNER, Michael Pascal, Karsten HEEKEREN, Diane N. DVORSKY, Susanne WALITZA, Wulf RÖSSLER und Anastasia THEODORIDOU, 2017. Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model : evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis. European Psychiatry. 2017. Bd. 45, S. 27–35. DOI 10.1016/j.eurpsy.2017.05.026
Hengartner, Michael Pascal, Karsten Heekeren, Diane N. Dvorsky, Susanne Walitza, Wulf Rössler, and Anastasia Theodoridou. 2017. “Checking the Predictive Accuracy of Basic Symptoms against Ultra High-Risk Criteria and Testing of a Multivariable Prediction Model : Evidence from a Prospective Three-Year Observational Study of Persons at Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis.” European Psychiatry 45: 27–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eurpsy.2017.05.026.
Hengartner, Michael Pascal, et al. “Checking the Predictive Accuracy of Basic Symptoms against Ultra High-Risk Criteria and Testing of a Multivariable Prediction Model : Evidence from a Prospective Three-Year Observational Study of Persons at Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis.” European Psychiatry, vol. 45, 2017, pp. 27–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eurpsy.2017.05.026.


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