Publikationstyp: Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschrift
Art der Begutachtung: Peer review (Publikation)
Titel: Partisan bias in inflation expectations
Autor/-in: Bachmann, Oliver
Gründler, Klaus
Potrafke, Niklas
Seiberlich, Ruben
et. al: No
DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00741-0
Erschienen in: Public Choice
Erscheinungsdatum: 25-Okt-2019
Verlag / Hrsg. Institution: Springer
ISSN: 0048-5829
1573-7101
Sprache: Englisch
Schlagwörter: Inflation expectation; Partisan bias; Political ideology; Voters’ perception
Fachgebiet (DDC): 332: Finanzwirtschaft
Zusammenfassung: We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations over the period June 2013 to June 2018. The results show that inflation expectations were 0.46% points higher in Republican-dominated than in Democratic-dominated US states when Barack Obama was US president. Compared to inflation expectations in Democratic-dominated states, inflation expectations in Republican-dominated states declined by 0.73% points when Donald Trump became president. We employ the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition method to disentangle the extent to which political ideology and other individual characteristics predict inflation expectations: around 25% of the total difference between inflation expectations in Democratic-dominated versus Republican-dominated states is based on how partisans respond to changes in the White House’s occupant (partisan bias). The results also corroborate the belief that voters’ misperceptions of economic conditions decline when the president belongs to the party that voters support.
URI: https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/18613
Volltext Version: Publizierte Version
Lizenz (gemäss Verlagsvertrag): Lizenz gemäss Verlagsvertrag
Departement: School of Management and Law
Enthalten in den Sammlungen:Publikationen School of Management and Law

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