Publikationstyp: Working Paper – Gutachten – Studie
Titel: Business cycle measurement with semantic filtering : a micro data approach
Autor/-in: Müller, Christian
Köberl, Eva
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005717922
Umfang: 17
Erscheinungsdatum: 2008
Reihe: KOF Working Papers
Reihenzählung: 212
Verlag / Hrsg. Institution: KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Verlag / Hrsg. Institution: Zürich
Sprache: Englisch
Schlagwörter: Business Cycle Measurement; Semantic Cross Validation; Shock Identification
Fachgebiet (DDC): 338: Produktion
Zusammenfassung: In this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties for GDP growth. For identifying business cycle movements, we use a semantic approach. We infer nine different states of the economy directly from firms’ responses in business tendency surveys. Hence, we can identify the current state of the economy. We therewith measure business cycle fluctuations. One of the main advantages of our methodology is that it is a structural concept based on shock identification and therefore does not need any - often rather arbitrary - statistical filtering. Furthermore, it is not subject to revisions, it is available in real-time and has a publication lead to official GDP data of at least one quarter. It can therefore be used for one quarter ahead forecasting real GDP growth.
Lizenz (gemäss Verlagsvertrag): Lizenz gemäss Verlagsvertrag
Departement: School of Management and Law
Organisationseinheit: Fachstelle für Wirtschaftspolitik (FWP)
Enthalten in den Sammlungen:Publikationen School of Management and Law

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