Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models

Yates, Katherine L.; Bouchet, Phil J.; Caley, M Julian; Mengersen, Kerrie; Randin, Christophe F.; Parnell, Stephen; Fielding, Alan H.; Bamford, Andrew J.; Ban, Stephen; Barbosa, A Márcia; Dormann, Carsten F.; Elith, Jane; Embling, Clare B.; Ervin, Gary N.; Fisher, Rebecca; Gould, Susan; Graf, Roland Felix; Gregr, Edward J.; Halpin, Patrick N.; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Heinänen, Stefan; Jones, Alice R.; Krishnakumar, Periyadan K.; Lauria, Valentina; Lozano-Montes, Hector; Mannocci, Laura; Mellin, Camille; Mesgaran, Mohsen B.; Moreno-Amat, Elena; Mormede, Sophie; Novaczek, Emilie; Oppel, Steffen; Ortuño Crespo, Guillermo; Peterson, A. Townsend; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Roberts, Jason J.; Ross, Rebecca E.; Scales, Kylie L.; Schoeman, David; Snelgrove, Paul; Sundblad, Göran; Thuiller, Wilfried; Torres, Leigh G.; Verbruggen, Heroen; Wang, Lifei; Wenger, Seth; Whittingham, Mark J.; Zharikov, Yuri; Zurell, Damaris; Sequeira, Ana M. M.

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-14620

Publication type:	Article in scientific journal
Type of review:	Peer review (publication)
Title:	Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models
Authors:	Yates, Katherine L. Bouchet, Phil J. Caley, M Julian Mengersen, Kerrie Randin, Christophe F. Parnell, Stephen Fielding, Alan H. Bamford, Andrew J. Ban, Stephen Barbosa, A Márcia Dormann, Carsten F. Elith, Jane Embling, Clare B. Ervin, Gary N. Fisher, Rebecca Gould, Susan Graf, Roland Felix Gregr, Edward J. Halpin, Patrick N. Heikkinen, Risto K. Heinänen, Stefan Jones, Alice R. Krishnakumar, Periyadan K. Lauria, Valentina Lozano-Montes, Hector Mannocci, Laura Mellin, Camille Mesgaran, Mohsen B. Moreno-Amat, Elena Mormede, Sophie Novaczek, Emilie Oppel, Steffen Ortuño Crespo, Guillermo Peterson, A. Townsend Rapacciuolo, Giovanni Roberts, Jason J. Ross, Rebecca E. Scales, Kylie L. Schoeman, David Snelgrove, Paul Sundblad, Göran Thuiller, Wilfried Torres, Leigh G. Verbruggen, Heroen Wang, Lifei Wenger, Seth Whittingham, Mark J. Zharikov, Yuri Zurell, Damaris Sequeira, Ana M. M.
DOI:	10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001 10.21256/zhaw-14620
Published in:	Trends in Ecology & Evolution
Volume(Issue):	33
Issue:	10
Page(s):	790
Pages to:	802
Issue Date:	2018
Publisher / Ed. Institution:	Cell Press
ISSN:	1872-8383 0169-5347
Language:	English
Subjects:	Predictive modeling; Extrapolation; Generality; Habitat models; Model transfers; Species distribution models; Uncertainty
Subject (DDC):	577: Ecology
Abstract:	Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.
URI:	https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/14620
Fulltext version:	Published version
License (according to publishing contract):	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0: Attribution - Non commercial - No derivatives 4.0 International
Departement:	Life Sciences and Facility Management
Organisational Unit:	Institute of Natural Resource Sciences (IUNR)
Appears in collections:	Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management

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Yates, K. L., Bouchet, P. J., Caley, M. J., Mengersen, K., Randin, C. F., Parnell, S., Fielding, A. H., Bamford, A. J., Ban, S., Barbosa, A. M., Dormann, C. F., Elith, J., Embling, C. B., Ervin, G. N., Fisher, R., Gould, S., Graf, R. F., Gregr, E. J., Halpin, P. N., et al. (2018). Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 33(10), 790–802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

Yates, K.L. et al. (2018) ‘Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models’, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 33(10), pp. 790–802. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001.

K. L. Yates et al., “Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models,” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 33, no. 10, pp. 790–802, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001.

YATES, Katherine L., Phil J. BOUCHET, M Julian CALEY, Kerrie MENGERSEN, Christophe F. RANDIN, Stephen PARNELL, Alan H. FIELDING, Andrew J. BAMFORD, Stephen BAN, A Márcia BARBOSA, Carsten F. DORMANN, Jane ELITH, Clare B. EMBLING, Gary N. ERVIN, Rebecca FISHER, Susan GOULD, Roland Felix GRAF, Edward J. GREGR, Patrick N. HALPIN, Risto K. HEIKKINEN, Stefan HEINÄNEN, Alice R. JONES, Periyadan K. KRISHNAKUMAR, Valentina LAURIA, Hector LOZANO-MONTES, Laura MANNOCCI, Camille MELLIN, Mohsen B. MESGARAN, Elena MORENO-AMAT, Sophie MORMEDE, Emilie NOVACZEK, Steffen OPPEL, Guillermo ORTUÑO CRESPO, A. Townsend PETERSON, Giovanni RAPACCIUOLO, Jason J. ROBERTS, Rebecca E. ROSS, Kylie L. SCALES, David SCHOEMAN, Paul SNELGROVE, Göran SUNDBLAD, Wilfried THUILLER, Leigh G. TORRES, Heroen VERBRUGGEN, Lifei WANG, Seth WENGER, Mark J. WHITTINGHAM, Yuri ZHARIKOV, Damaris ZURELL und Ana M. M. SEQUEIRA, 2018. Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2018. Bd. 33, Nr. 10, S. 790–802. DOI 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

Yates, Katherine L., Phil J. Bouchet, M Julian Caley, Kerrie Mengersen, Christophe F. Randin, Stephen Parnell, Alan H. Fielding, et al. 2018. “Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 33 (10): 790–802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001.

Yates, Katherine L., et al. “Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 33, no. 10, 2018, pp. 790–802, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001.