Title: Innovative methods in assessing political risk for business internationalization
Authors : Rios-Morales, Ruth
Gamberger, Dragan
Šmuc, Tom
Azuaje, Francisco
Published in : Research in International Business and Finance
Volume(Issue) : 23
Issue : 2
Pages : 144
Pages to: 156
Publisher / Ed. Institution : Elsevier
Issue Date: 2009
License (according to publishing contract) : Licence according to publishing contract
Type of review: Peer review (Publication)
Language : English
Subjects : Good governance; Machine learning
Subject (DDC) : 320: Politics
337: International economics and commerce
Abstract: Political risk assessment, together with portfolio analysis, has become an important part of international business investment decision making. In this paper, by using different knowledge discovery techniques, we attempt to assess the relevance and actionability of ‘good governance’ indicators in political risk assessment. For that purpose, we have integrated good governance indicators data with political instability classification from the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) research. From this study, two models that capture the intuitive reasoning of investors have been developed. The usefulness of the models has been evaluated by comparison with factual investment data. Our findings suggest that quantitative indicators of good governance may provide the basis for accurate and meaningful models for the assessment and prediction of political risk.
Departement: School of Management and Law
Publication type: Article in scientific Journal
DOI : 10.1016/j.ribaf.2008.03.011
ISSN: 0275-5319
URI: https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/10278
Appears in Collections:Publikationen School of Management and Law

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